Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Sam LaffertyGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Sam LaffertyPoints1
Oilers- Evander KaneGoals1
- Connor BrownAssists1
- Evander KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:13Dakota Joshua Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (28), Conor Garland (25)3–1
- P217:48Evander Kane Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Connor Brown (8), Darnell Nurse (19)2–1
- P211:00Pius Suter Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (23)2–0
- P119:44Sam Lafferty Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (14), J.T. Miller (66)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:44Sam Lafferty Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (14), J.T. Miller (66)VAN 1 – 0 EDM · VAN 45% → 63% +18VAN 45% → 63%+18 pts
- P211:00Pius Suter Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Tyler Myers (23)VAN 2 – 0 EDM · VAN 66% → 83% +16VAN 66% → 83%+16 pts
- P217:48Evander Kane Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Connor Brown (8), Darnell Nurse (19)VAN 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 13% → 31% +17EDM 13% → 31%+17 pts
- P318:13Dakota Joshua Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (28), Conor Garland (25)VAN 3 – 1 EDM · VAN 98% → >99% +2VAN 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -127
- VAN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +2 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +68 Elo | EDM 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.8% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 9th of 3121–17 | Road vs home | 26–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 3–0 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.