Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarGoals1
- Noah HanifinAssists1
- Keegan KolesarPoints1
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Ryan McLeodAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:56Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Wrap-around, assists: none1–5
- P37:50Keegan Kolesar Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (31), William Karlsson (29)1–4
- P36:50Leon Draisaitl Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (48), Zach Hyman (22)0–4
- P28:06Zach Hyman Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (47), Leon Draisaitl (63)0–3
- P25:38Mattias Ekholm Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (18), Corey Perry (9)0–2
- P19:37Cody Ceci Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (17), Darnell Nurse (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:37Cody Ceci Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (17), Darnell Nurse (18)VGK 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15EDM 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P25:38Mattias Ekholm Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (18), Corey Perry (9)VGK 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 73% → 86% +13EDM 73% → 86%+13 pts
- P28:06Zach Hyman Goal (53) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (47), Leon Draisaitl (63)VGK 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 87% → 95% +8EDM 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P36:50Leon Draisaitl Goal (41) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (48), Zach Hyman (22)VGK 0 – 4 EDM · EDM >99% → >99% +1EDM >99% → >99%+1 pts
- P37:50Keegan Kolesar Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (31), William Karlsson (29)VGK 1 – 4 EDM · VGK <1% → <1% +1VGK <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -128
- VGK +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | 0 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +74 Elo | EDM 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 54.4%3rd of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 15th of 3117–20 | Road vs home | 25–113rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.