Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Quinn HughesGoals2
- Brock BoeserAssists1
- Quinn HughesPoints2
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists2
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints3
Scoring summary
- P32:05Brett Howden Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (9), Nicolas Roy (27)3–6
- P31:41Quinn Hughes Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Vasily Podkolzin (2)3–5
- P26:13Quinn Hughes Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Conor Garland (24), J.T. Miller (60)2–5
- P21:46William Karlsson Goal (26) Poke, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (29), Anthony Mantha (20)1–5
- P114:42Noah Hanifin Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Jonathan Marchessault (25)1–4
- P19:40Jack Eichel Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (24), Ivan Barbashev (26)1–3
- P19:20Nils Hoglander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (32)1–2
- P16:23Jonathan Marchessault Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (25), Brayden McNabb (21)0–2
- P11:37Anthony Mantha Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:37Anthony Mantha Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +14VGK 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:23Jonathan Marchessault Goal (41) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (25), Brayden McNabb (21)VAN 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 69% → 81% +12VGK 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P19:20Nils Hoglander Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (32)VAN 1 – 2 VGK · VAN 18% → 31% +12VAN 18% → 31%+12 pts
- P19:40Jack Eichel Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (24), Ivan Barbashev (26)VAN 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 69% → 82% +12VGK 69% → 82%+12 pts
- P114:42Noah Hanifin Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (33), Jonathan Marchessault (25)VAN 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 83% → 91% +9VGK 83% → 91%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Fair odds
- VGK -120
- VAN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +20 Elo | VGK 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 50.3%16th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 5th of 3121–15 | Road vs home | 23–124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.