Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals2
- Jack EichelAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints3
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals2
- J.T. MillerAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Scoring summary
- P218:31Conor Garland Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (65), Dakota Joshua (14)3–4
- P213:10Brock Boeser Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (54), Tyler Myers (21)3–3
- P29:33Noah Hanifin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (34), Tomas Hertl (20)3–2
- P114:26Quinn Hughes Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (33), J.T. Miller (64)2–2
- P111:50Conor Garland Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (71), J.T. Miller (63)2–1
- P18:06Jack Eichel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (26)2–0
- P11:51Jack Eichel Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (30), Logan Thompson (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Jack Eichel Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (30), Logan Thompson (3)VGK 1 – 0 VAN · VGK 45% → 59% +15VGK 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P114:26Quinn Hughes Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (33), J.T. Miller (64)VGK 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 38% → 55% +17VAN 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P29:33Noah Hanifin Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (34), Tomas Hertl (20)VGK 3 – 2 VAN · VGK 46% → 66% +20VGK 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P213:10Brock Boeser Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (54), Tyler Myers (21)VGK 3 – 3 VAN · VAN 32% → 54% +21VAN 32% → 54%+21 pts
- P218:31Conor Garland Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (65), Dakota Joshua (14)VGK 3 – 4 VAN · VAN 53% → 75% +22VAN 53% → 75%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 56%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- VGK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +3 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +44 Elo | VAN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.56th of 31 |
| 12th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 49.8%19th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 15th of 3117–19 | Road vs home | 24–136th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.