Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Ian ColeAssists1
- Teddy BluegerPoints1
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:16Adrian Kempe Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P312:35Teddy Blueger Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Zadorov (13)3–5
- P310:35Trevor Moore Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (26)2–5
- P37:23Dakota Joshua Goal (16) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (62), Filip Hronek (43)2–4
- P28:49Kevin Fiala Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (42), Mikey Anderson (16)1–4
- P22:09Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (21), Kevin Fiala (43)1–3
- P110:48Brock Boeser Goal (39) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (53), Ian Cole (9)1–2
- P15:45Drew Doughty Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Adrian Kempe (44)0–2
- P12:48Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (41), Drew Doughty (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:48Adrian Kempe Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (41), Drew Doughty (33)VAN 0 – 1 LA · LA 54% → 69% +14LA 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P15:45Drew Doughty Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (7), Adrian Kempe (44)VAN 0 – 2 LA · LA 69% → 81% +12LA 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P110:48Brock Boeser Goal (39) Deflected, assists: Elias Pettersson (53), Ian Cole (9)VAN 1 – 2 LA · VAN 18% → 31% +12VAN 18% → 31%+12 pts
- P22:09Alex Laferriere Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Jordan Spence (21), Kevin Fiala (43)VAN 1 – 3 LA · LA 71% → 84% +13LA 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P28:49Kevin Fiala Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (42), Mikey Anderson (16)VAN 1 – 4 LA · LA 86% → 95% +8LA 86% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 53%
- Fair odds
- LA -120
- VAN +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | 0 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +19 Elo | LA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 53.3%5th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–16 | Road vs home | 17–1822nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.