Calgary Flames at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Brayden PachalGoals1
- Ilya SolovyovAssists1
- Brayden PachalPoints1
Canucks- Tyler MyersGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Tyler MyersPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:02J.T. Miller Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (15)1–4
- P310:56Brayden Pachal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (46), Ilya Solovyov (3)1–3
- P21:58Dakota Joshua Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (26), Tyler Myers (24)0–3
- P113:28Nils Hoglander Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (55), Ilya Mikheyev (20)0–2
- P112:00Tyler Myers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (22), Elias Lindholm (29)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:00Tyler Myers Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (22), Elias Lindholm (29)CGY 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 56% → 72% +15VAN 56% → 72%+15 pts
- P113:28Nils Hoglander Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (55), Ilya Mikheyev (20)CGY 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 72% → 84% +12VAN 72% → 84%+12 pts
- P21:58Dakota Joshua Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Conor Garland (26), Tyler Myers (24)CGY 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 86% → 94% +8VAN 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P310:56Brayden Pachal Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (46), Ilya Solovyov (3)CGY 1 – 3 VAN · CGY <1% → 3% +2CGY <1% → 3%+2 pts
- P315:02J.T. Miller Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Pius Suter (15)CGY 1 – 4 VAN · VAN >99% → >99% +0VAN >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 65%
- Fair odds
- VAN -133
- CGY +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.3 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +16 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +111 Elo | VAN 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.57th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 49.8%19th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3116–22 | Road vs home | 25–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.