Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Andrei KuzmenkoGoals3
- Nazem KadriAssists2
- Andrei KuzmenkoPoints3
Ducks- Sam ColangeloGoals1
- Radko GudasAssists1
- Frank VatranoPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:19Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (14), MacKenzie Weegar (31)6–3
- P314:22Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (40), Nazem Kadri (44)5–3
- P37:01Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (32), Troy Terry (34)4–3
- P36:13Frank Vatrano Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (8), Jackson LaCombe (14)4–2
- P32:54Sam Colangelo Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Isac Lundestrom (6), Radko Gudas (12)4–1
- P218:28Connor Zary Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (39), Dryden Hunt (4)4–0
- P25:43Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (43), MacKenzie Weegar (30)3–0
- P111:53Nazem Kadri Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (13), Oliver Kylington (4)2–0
- P15:54Andrew Mangiapane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (5), Yegor Sharangovich (28)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:54Andrew Mangiapane Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Pachal (5), Yegor Sharangovich (28)CGY 1 – 0 ANA · CGY 42% → 58% +15CGY 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P111:53Nazem Kadri Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Pospisil (13), Oliver Kylington (4)CGY 2 – 0 ANA · CGY 59% → 74% +15CGY 59% → 74%+15 pts
- P25:43Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Nazem Kadri (43), MacKenzie Weegar (30)CGY 3 – 0 ANA · CGY 79% → 90% +11CGY 79% → 90%+11 pts
- P37:01Olen Zellweger Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (32), Troy Terry (34)CGY 4 – 3 ANA · ANA 7% → 24% +17ANA 7% → 24%+17 pts
- P314:22Andrei Kuzmenko Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (40), Nazem Kadri (44)CGY 5 – 3 ANA · CGY 87% → 99% +12CGY 87% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 52%
- Fair odds
- ANA -138
- CGY +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −5 | CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +17 Elo | ANA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −1.129th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 45.0%29th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 89.4%29th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 24th of 3115–22 | Road vs home | 11–2730th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 1–1 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.