Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Akil ThomasGoals1
- Trevor LewisAssists1
- Akil ThomasPoints1
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Ryan StromePoints2
Scoring summary
- P35:50Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P31:51Alex Killorn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (31), Ryan Strome (28)1–2
- P117:46Frank Vatrano Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (11), Ryan Strome (27)1–1
- P15:50Akil Thomas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Lewis (7), Vladislav Gavrikov (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:50Akil Thomas Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Trevor Lewis (7), Vladislav Gavrikov (17)LA 1 – 0 ANA · LA 48% → 63% +15LA 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P117:46Frank Vatrano Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Radko Gudas (11), Ryan Strome (27)LA 1 – 1 ANA · ANA 35% → 52% +17ANA 35% → 52%+17 pts
- P31:51Alex Killorn Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (31), Ryan Strome (28)LA 1 – 2 ANA · ANA 51% → 75% +24ANA 51% → 75%+24 pts
- P35:50Trevor Zegras Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 3 ANA · ANA 78% → 94% +16ANA 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 40%
- Fair odds
- ANA -108
- LA +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.1 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +73 Elo | LA 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 51.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.730th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −1.229th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 5th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 89.2%29th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 31 |
| 10th of 3120–18 | Road vs home | 10–2731st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 2–0 ANA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.