Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Connor ZaryAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Kings- Viktor ArvidssonGoals2
- Anze KopitarAssists2
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:46Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (44), Drew Doughty (34)1–4
- P38:28Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Daniil Miromanov (3), Connor Zary (19)1–3
- P27:42Akil Thomas Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (20)0–3
- P20:54Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (27), Trevor Moore (25)0–2
- P16:48Kevin Fiala Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (43), Adrian Kempe (45)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:48Kevin Fiala Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (43), Adrian Kempe (45)CGY 0 – 1 LA · LA 56% → 70% +15LA 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P20:54Viktor Arvidsson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (27), Trevor Moore (25)CGY 0 – 2 LA · LA 72% → 85% +13LA 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P27:42Akil Thomas Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (20)CGY 0 – 3 LA · LA 87% → 95% +8LA 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P38:28Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Daniil Miromanov (3), Connor Zary (19)CGY 1 – 3 LA · CGY <1% → 4% +4CGY <1% → 4%+4 pts
- P316:46Viktor Arvidsson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (44), Drew Doughty (34)CGY 1 – 4 LA · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 60%
- Fair odds
- LA -127
- CGY +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −1 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +69 Elo | LA 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 53.1%5th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%5th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 24th of 3115–21 | Road vs home | 18–1819th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CGY 2–1 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.