Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints3
Jets- Kyle ConnorGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Kyle ConnorPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:30Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Batted, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (1), Mikko Rantanen (2)6–7
- P312:24Cale Makar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–7
- P38:54Kyle Connor Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (2), Mark Scheifele (2)4–7
- P36:29Artturi Lehkonen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (2), Nathan MacKinnon (1)4–6
- P35:51Kyle Connor Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (1), Mark Scheifele (1)3–6
- P33:31Adam Lowry Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (1), Nino Niederreiter (2)3–5
- P28:57Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (2), Nino Niederreiter (1)3–4
- P115:53Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1)3–3
- P115:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Cale Makar (1)3–2
- P114:47Miles Wood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (1), Ross Colton (1)2–2
- P111:57Vladislav Namestnikov Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (1)1–2
- P18:02Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Brenden Dillon (1)1–1
- P16:10Valeri Nichushkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:02Josh Morrissey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (1), Brenden Dillon (1)COL 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 39% → 55% +16WPG 39% → 55%+16 pts
- P114:47Miles Wood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Kiviranta (1), Ross Colton (1)COL 2 – 2 WPG · COL 30% → 45% +16COL 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P115:05Nathan MacKinnon Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (1), Cale Makar (1)COL 3 – 2 WPG · COL 45% → 62% +17COL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P115:53Mark Scheifele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (1)COL 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 38% → 55% +17WPG 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P28:57Adam Lowry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (2), Nino Niederreiter (1)COL 3 – 4 WPG · WPG 54% → 73% +19WPG 54% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −3 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +45 Elo | WPG 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–3 WPG in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.