Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Dylan HollowayGoals1
- Philip BrobergAssists1
- Dylan HollowayPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P212:00Zach Parise Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Colton (23), Miles Wood (17)1–5
- P115:22Dylan Holloway Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (2), Brett Kulak (13)1–4
- P110:17Josh Manson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (19), Yakov Trenin (5)0–4
- P17:37Valeri Nichushkin Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (89), Cale Makar (69)0–3
- P15:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (38), Nathan MacKinnon (88)0–2
- P11:19Valeri Nichushkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Casey Mittelstadt (39)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:19Valeri Nichushkin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (18), Casey Mittelstadt (39)EDM 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 69% +14COL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P15:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (38), Nathan MacKinnon (88)EDM 0 – 2 COL · COL 69% → 81% +12COL 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P17:37Valeri Nichushkin Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (89), Cale Makar (69)EDM 0 – 3 COL · COL 81% → 90% +9COL 81% → 90%+9 pts
- P110:17Josh Manson Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (19), Yakov Trenin (5)EDM 0 – 4 COL · COL 91% → 96% +5COL 91% → 96%+5 pts
- P115:22Dylan Holloway Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Philip Broberg (2), Brett Kulak (13)EDM 1 – 4 COL · EDM 4% → 8% +5EDM 4% → 8%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Fair odds
- COL -121
- EDM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +6 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · COL: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +28 Elo | COL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 8th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.6% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 10th of 3120–18 | Road vs home | 28–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–1 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.