San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Danil GushchinGoals1
- Thomas BordeleauAssists1
- Fabian ZetterlundPoints1
Oilers- Warren FoegeleGoals2
- Darnell NurseAssists3
- Adam HenriquePoints3
Scoring summary
- P315:29Fabian Zetterlund Goal (23) Backhand, assists: William Eklund (29), Mikael Granlund (47)2–9
- P215:35Zach Hyman Goal (54) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (100), Darnell Nurse (22)1–9
- P213:49Evan Bouchard Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Corey Perry (10), Dylan Holloway (3)1–8
- P213:18Cody Ceci Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Henrique (27), Zach Hyman (23)1–7
- P210:11Corey Perry Goal (12) Poke, assists: Evan Bouchard (63), Dylan Holloway (2)1–6
- P24:41Warren Foegele Goal (19) Poke, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (49), Leon Draisaitl (65)1–5
- P21:58Danil Gushchin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (5)1–4
- P119:35Dylan Holloway Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Henrique (26), Darnell Nurse (21)0–4
- P110:40Warren Foegele Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (64)0–3
- P14:01Adam Henrique Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (12)0–2
- P10:53Connor McDavid Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Connor McDavid Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Darnell Nurse (20)SJ 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 59% → 73% +13EDM 59% → 73%+13 pts
- P14:01Adam Henrique Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (12)SJ 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 73% → 84% +11EDM 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P110:40Warren Foegele Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (64)SJ 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 85% → 92% +8EDM 85% → 92%+8 pts
- P119:35Dylan Holloway Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Adam Henrique (26), Darnell Nurse (21)SJ 0 – 4 EDM · EDM 94% → 98% +4EDM 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P21:58Danil Gushchin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Thomas Bordeleau (5)SJ 1 – 4 EDM · SJ 2% → 6% +4SJ 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 74%
- Fair odds
- EDM -145
- SJ +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.8 – 3.4 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +16 | +1 | SJ: Devin Cooley: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +185 Elo | EDM 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−1.7 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.8% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 30th of 318–30 | Road vs home | 26–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 1–1 EDM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.