Minnesota Wild at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals2
- Jonas BrodinAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Sharks- Mario FerraroGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists2
- Mario FerraroPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:46Marcus Johansson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (7), Alex Goligoski (10)6–2
- P219:51Kirill Kaprizov Goal (44) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (33), Matt Boldy (38)5–2
- P219:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (38), Jonas Brodin (20)4–2
- P215:52Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (28), Mikael Granlund (46)3–2
- P214:23Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jonas Brodin (19), Marat Khusnutdinov (3)3–1
- P116:51Declan Chisholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (6), Liam Ohgren (1)2–1
- P19:32Jan Rutta Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (18), Mikael Granlund (45)1–1
- P15:19Matt Boldy Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (49), Jake Middleton (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:32Jan Rutta Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (18), Mikael Granlund (45)MIN 1 – 1 SJ · SJ 40% → 56% +16SJ 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P116:51Declan Chisholm Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jon Merrill (6), Liam Ohgren (1)MIN 2 – 1 SJ · MIN 44% → 61% +17MIN 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P214:23Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jonas Brodin (19), Marat Khusnutdinov (3)MIN 3 – 1 SJ · MIN 67% → 84% +17MIN 67% → 84%+17 pts
- P215:52Mario Ferraro Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (28), Mikael Granlund (46)MIN 3 – 2 SJ · SJ 15% → 32% +17SJ 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P219:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (43) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (38), Jonas Brodin (20)MIN 4 – 2 SJ · MIN 70% → 87% +17MIN 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 46%
- Fair odds
- SJ -131
- MIN +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +3 | MIN: Jesper Wallstedt: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +27 Elo | MIN 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 56.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.330th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.931st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.731st of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 41.8%31st of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.6%28th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3115–21 | Road vs home | 11–2730th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.