Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Jonas BrodinAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Chandler StephensonAssists4
- Chandler StephensonPoints4
Scoring summary
- P313:55Keegan Kolesar Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Roy (28), Pavel Dorofeyev (9)2–7
- P310:49William Karlsson Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Paul Cotter (18), Anthony Mantha (21)2–6
- P37:13Ryan Hartman Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (37), Jonas Brodin (18)2–5
- P32:27Tomas Hertl Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Whitecloud (11), Chandler Stephenson (35)1–5
- P213:12Jonathan Marchessault Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (34), Noah Hanifin (33)1–4
- P27:42Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (37), Marcus Johansson (19)1–3
- P18:35Jack Eichel Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (32), Chandler Stephenson (33)0–3
- P16:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (35), Chandler Stephenson (32)0–2
- P12:57Nicolas Roy Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:57Nicolas Roy Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (35)MIN 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 56% → 70% +14VGK 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P16:21Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (35), Chandler Stephenson (32)MIN 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 70% → 82% +12VGK 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P18:35Jack Eichel Goal (30) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (32), Chandler Stephenson (33)MIN 0 – 3 VGK · VGK 82% → 91% +8VGK 82% → 91%+8 pts
- P27:42Marat Khusnutdinov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Brock Faber (37), Marcus Johansson (19)MIN 1 – 3 VGK · MIN 5% → 13% +8MIN 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P213:12Jonathan Marchessault Goal (42) Snap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (34), Noah Hanifin (33)MIN 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 88% → 96% +8VGK 88% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 60%
- Fair odds
- VGK -127
- MIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +69 Elo | VGK 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.0% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3115–20 | Road vs home | 24–124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.