Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists1
- Cale MakarPoints2
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals2
- Noah HanifinAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:23Tomas Hertl Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (36), Jonathan Marchessault (27)3–4
- P316:23William Karlsson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (10), Zach Whitecloud (12)3–3
- P36:35William Karlsson Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (10), Shea Theodore (36)3–2
- P32:56Ivan Barbashev Goal (19) Wrap-around, assists: Keegan Kolesar (10), Noah Hanifin (34)3–1
- P212:50Mikko Rantanen Goal (41) Tip-In, assists: Josh Manson (17), Valeri Nichushkin (25)3–0
- P110:34Cale Makar Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (87), Artturi Lehkonen (17)2–0
- P17:26Ross Colton Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (16), Cale Makar (68)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:26Ross Colton Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Miles Wood (16), Cale Makar (68)COL 1 – 0 VGK · COL 42% → 57% +15COL 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P110:34Cale Makar Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (87), Artturi Lehkonen (17)COL 2 – 0 VGK · COL 58% → 73% +15COL 58% → 73%+15 pts
- P36:35William Karlsson Goal (29) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (10), Shea Theodore (36)COL 3 – 2 VGK · VGK 7% → 25% +18VGK 7% → 25%+18 pts
- P316:23William Karlsson Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (10), Zach Whitecloud (12)COL 3 – 3 VGK · VGK 8% → 52% +45VGK 8% → 52%+45 pts
- OT1:23Tomas Hertl Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jack Eichel (36), Jonathan Marchessault (27)COL 3 – 4 VGK · VGK 52% → 94% +42VGK 52% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 55%
- Fair odds
- VGK -141
- COL +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | COL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −9 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +38 Elo | VGK 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.7% | Shot share | 50.1%17th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 13th of 3119–19 | Road vs home | 25–124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.