Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Josh MorrisseyGoals1
- Sean MonahanAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Avalanche- Devon ToewsGoals1
- Casey MittelstadtAssists3
- Casey MittelstadtPoints3
Scoring summary
- P316:25Devon Toews Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (2)2–6
- P312:35Ross Colton Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (3), Samuel Girard (1)2–5
- P38:11Artturi Lehkonen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2), Devon Toews (2)2–4
- P34:39Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Nathan MacKinnon (3)2–3
- P32:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (4), Cale Makar (5)2–2
- P210:50Josh Morrissey Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Sean Monahan (1)2–1
- P25:03Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (1), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)1–1
- P111:18Zach Parise Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2), Casey Mittelstadt (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:18Zach Parise Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Manson (2), Casey Mittelstadt (1)WPG 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +15COL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P25:03Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Dylan DeMelo (1), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)WPG 1 – 1 COL · WPG 28% → 46% +18WPG 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P210:50Josh Morrissey Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (3), Sean Monahan (1)WPG 2 – 1 COL · WPG 46% → 67% +20WPG 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P32:11Nathan MacKinnon Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (4), Cale Makar (5)WPG 2 – 2 COL · COL 27% → 53% +25COL 27% → 53%+25 pts
- P34:39Valeri Nichushkin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Nathan MacKinnon (3)WPG 2 – 3 COL · COL 53% → 78% +26COL 53% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Fair odds
- COL -122
- WPG +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −9 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +36 Elo | COL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 4–1 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.