Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Artturi LehkonenGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Artturi LehkonenPoints2
Jets- David GustafssonGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:03Valeri Nichushkin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cale Makar (4), Mikko Rantanen (3)5–2
- P219:53Josh Manson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Artturi Lehkonen (2)4–2
- P217:20Zach Parise Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (1)3–2
- P214:16Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (3), Devon Toews (1)2–2
- P28:37Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3), Kyle Connor (2)1–2
- P21:59Miles Wood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2)1–1
- P13:15David Gustafsson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brenden Dillon (3), Neal Pionk (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:59Miles Wood Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Ross Colton (2)COL 1 – 1 WPG · COL 29% → 46% +17COL 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P28:37Mark Scheifele Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Gabriel Vilardi (3), Kyle Connor (2)COL 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 54% → 73% +19WPG 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P214:16Artturi Lehkonen Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (3), Devon Toews (1)COL 2 – 2 WPG · COL 26% → 46% +21COL 26% → 46%+21 pts
- P217:20Zach Parise Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (1)COL 3 – 2 WPG · COL 47% → 69% +23COL 47% → 69%+23 pts
- P219:53Josh Manson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (2), Artturi Lehkonen (2)COL 4 – 2 WPG · COL 71% → 88% +17COL 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 57%
- Fair odds
- WPG -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −6 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +49 Elo | WPG 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 50.4%17th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 92.4%1st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 25–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 0–4 WPG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.