Winnipeg Jets at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- Mason AppletonAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals3
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:47Valeri Nichushkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6)1–5
- P219:36Valeri Nichushkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3), Nathan MacKinnon (5)1–4
- P215:03Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P211:36Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (6), Nathan MacKinnon (4)1–2
- P113:56Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Logan Stanley (1)1–1
- P18:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:10Artturi Lehkonen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (4)WPG 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 70% +15COL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P113:56Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Appleton (2), Logan Stanley (1)WPG 1 – 1 COL · WPG 30% → 45% +16WPG 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P211:36Valeri Nichushkin Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (6), Nathan MacKinnon (4)WPG 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 73% +20COL 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P215:03Cale Makar Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneWPG 1 – 3 COL · COL 74% → 89% +15COL 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P219:36Valeri Nichushkin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (3), Nathan MacKinnon (5)WPG 1 – 4 COL · COL 91% → 97% +7COL 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 57%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- WPG +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −7 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +49 Elo | COL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 1st of 312.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 17th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 5th of 3123–16 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.