Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Jason RobertsonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Brayden McNabbAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT16:23Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Ryan Suter (1)3–2
- P213:50Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1)2–2
- P210:40Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (1)2–1
- P25:25Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Evgenii Dadonov (1)2–0
- P111:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Miro Heiskanen (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:11Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jason Robertson (1), Miro Heiskanen (3)DAL 1 – 0 VGK · DAL 46% → 62% +16DAL 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P25:25Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Evgenii Dadonov (1)DAL 2 – 0 VGK · DAL 65% → 81% +16DAL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P210:40Brayden McNabb Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (1)DAL 2 – 1 VGK · VGK 17% → 33% +16VGK 17% → 33%+16 pts
- P213:50Jack Eichel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden McNabb (1)DAL 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 32% → 53% +21VGK 32% → 53%+21 pts
- OT16:23Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Ryan Suter (1)DAL 3 – 2 VGK · DAL 49% → 100% +51DAL 49% → 100%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 52%
- Fair odds
- VGK -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +8 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +13 Elo | VGK 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 27–134th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 0–5 VGK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.