St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints1
Stars- Mason MarchmentGoals1
- Matt DucheneAssists1
- Mason MarchmentPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jason Robertson Goal Backhand0–1
- P35:11Mason Marchment Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (40), Esa Lindell (21)1–1
- P217:19Robert Thomas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (4), Brayden Schenn (26)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:19Robert Thomas Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Zack Bolduc (4), Brayden Schenn (26)STL 1 – 0 DAL · STL 46% → 69% +23STL 46% → 69%+23 pts
- P35:11Mason Marchment Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (40), Esa Lindell (21)STL 1 – 1 DAL · DAL 26% → 53% +28DAL 26% → 53%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Fair odds
- DAL -132
- STL +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +98 Elo | DAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.2% | Shot share | 52.2%8th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 23–1510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 2–1 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.