Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Philipp KurashevAssists1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Golden Knights- Brayden McNabbGoals1
- Tomas HertlAssists1
- Brayden McNabbPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Nicolas Roy Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (11), Jack Eichel (37)1–3
- P316:02Jason Dickinson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Philipp Kurashev (36)1–2
- P37:13Michael Amadio Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P216:25Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21), Pavel Dorofeyev (11)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:25Brayden McNabb Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (21), Pavel Dorofeyev (11)CHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 76% +21VGK 55% → 76%+21 pts
- P37:13Michael Amadio Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 0 – 2 VGK · VGK 81% → 95% +14VGK 81% → 95%+14 pts
- P316:02Jason Dickinson Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (39), Philipp Kurashev (36)CHI 1 – 2 VGK · CHI <1% → 7% +7CHI <1% → 7%+7 pts
- P318:24Nicolas Roy Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Howden (11), Jack Eichel (37)CHI 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 99% → >99% +1VGK 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 71%
- Fair odds
- VGK -141
- CHI +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +158 Elo | VGK 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.6% | Shot share | 50.2%17th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.8%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 31st of 316–31 | Road vs home | 26–124th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.