Carolina Hurricanes at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals2
- Andrei SvechnikovAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints2
Blackhawks- Andreas AthanasiouGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Andreas AthanasiouPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:54Sebastian Aho Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (47)4–2
- P316:27Seth Jarvis Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (31), Andrei Svechnikov (33)3–2
- P36:24Seth Jarvis Goal (32) , assists: none2–2
- P31:54Andreas Athanasiou Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (11), Ryan Donato (17)1–2
- P24:10Jordan Staal Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (18), Andrei Svechnikov (32)1–1
- P110:05Frank Nazar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:05Frank Nazar Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (23)CAR 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 50% → 66% +16CHI 50% → 66%+16 pts
- P24:10Jordan Staal Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Martinook (18), Andrei Svechnikov (32)CAR 1 – 1 CHI · CAR 32% → 50% +18CAR 32% → 50%+18 pts
- P31:54Andreas Athanasiou Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (11), Ryan Donato (17)CAR 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 50% → 75% +25CHI 50% → 75%+25 pts
- P36:24Seth Jarvis Goal (32) , assists: noneCAR 2 – 2 CHI · CAR 22% → 50% +28CAR 22% → 50%+28 pts
- P316:27Seth Jarvis Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (31), Andrei Svechnikov (33)CAR 3 – 2 CHI · CAR 50% → 93% +43CAR 50% → 93%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 33%
- Fair odds
- CHI -102
- CAR +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.1 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +9 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +124 Elo | CAR 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.7 | Margin | −1.430th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.2% | Shot share | 44.8%30th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 4th of 3123–15 | Road vs home | 15–2427th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.