Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Jonathan MarchessaultAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints2
Stars- Jason RobertsonGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:26Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1)3–1
- P218:53Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P118:09Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3), Ivan Barbashev (2)1–1
- P116:47Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Jamie Benn (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:47Jason Robertson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Jamie Benn (1)VGK 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 71% +16DAL 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P118:09Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3), Ivan Barbashev (2)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · VGK 29% → 45% +16VGK 29% → 45%+16 pts
- P218:53Noah Hanifin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 2 – 1 DAL · VGK 46% → 70% +24VGK 46% → 70%+24 pts
- P319:26Jack Eichel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (1)VGK 3 – 1 DAL · VGK >99% → >99% +0VGK >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 60%
- Fair odds
- DAL -127
- VGK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +5 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +68 Elo | DAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 4–0 DAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.