Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals3
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Golden Knights- Jack EichelGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- Jack EichelPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:45Frank Vatrano Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (15)4–1
- P31:20Frank Vatrano Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (30), Trevor Zegras (9)3–1
- P30:51Jackson LaCombe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (1), Leo Carlsson (17)2–1
- P218:47Jack Eichel Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (37), William Karlsson (30)1–1
- P24:25Frank Vatrano Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (34), Ryan Strome (29)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:25Frank Vatrano Goal (35) Slap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (34), Ryan Strome (29)ANA 1 – 0 VGK · ANA 44% → 63% +19ANA 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P218:47Jack Eichel Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (37), William Karlsson (30)ANA 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 31% → 55% +24VGK 31% → 55%+24 pts
- P30:51Jackson LaCombe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Cutter Gauthier (1), Leo Carlsson (17)ANA 2 – 1 VGK · ANA 46% → 70% +25ANA 46% → 70%+25 pts
- P31:20Frank Vatrano Goal (36) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (30), Trevor Zegras (9)ANA 3 – 1 VGK · ANA 71% → 88% +18ANA 71% → 88%+18 pts
- P319:45Frank Vatrano Goal (37) Wrist Shot, assists: Jackson LaCombe (15)ANA 4 – 1 VGK · ANA 100% → 100% +0ANA 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 69%
- Fair odds
- VGK -138
- ANA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −8 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +137 Elo | VGK 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.1% | Shot share | 50.3%17th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 29th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 27th of 3114–25 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 2–1 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.