Anaheim Ducks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Trevor ZegrasGoals1
- Cam FowlerAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints1
Kings- Matt RoyGoals1
- Trevor LewisAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:42Kevin Fiala Goal (29) Wrap-around, assists: Trevor Lewis (8), Drew Doughty (35)1–3
- P311:18Trevor Zegras Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (7), Cam Fowler (33)1–2
- P210:33Matt Roy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (8), Akil Thomas (1)0–2
- P22:45Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (8), Adrian Kempe (46)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:45Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (8), Adrian Kempe (46)ANA 0 – 1 LA · LA 60% → 76% +16LA 60% → 76%+16 pts
- P210:33Matt Roy Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Blake Lizotte (8), Akil Thomas (1)ANA 0 – 2 LA · LA 77% → 90% +13LA 77% → 90%+13 pts
- P311:18Trevor Zegras Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Olen Zellweger (7), Cam Fowler (33)ANA 1 – 2 LA · ANA 2% → 14% +12ANA 2% → 14%+12 pts
- P317:42Kevin Fiala Goal (29) Wrap-around, assists: Trevor Lewis (8), Drew Doughty (35)ANA 1 – 3 LA · LA 97% → >99% +3LA 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 73%
- Fair odds
- LA -164
- ANA +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.7 – 3.4 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | ANA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +3 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +171 Elo | LA 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 62.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 30th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.0% | Shot share | 53.2%5th of 31 |
| 29th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 30th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 27th of 3114–24 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–2 LA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.