Vegas Golden Knights at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brett HowdenGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- Brett HowdenPoints1
Stars- Radek FaksaGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Radek FaksaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P30:44Radek Faksa Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (2), Thomas Harley (1)1–2
- P215:25Brett Howden Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (1), William Karlsson (2)1–1
- P114:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:34Wyatt Johnston Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVGK 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 71% +16DAL 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P215:25Brett Howden Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Michael Amadio (1), William Karlsson (2)VGK 1 – 1 DAL · VGK 25% → 46% +21VGK 25% → 46%+21 pts
- P30:44Radek Faksa Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (2), Thomas Harley (1)VGK 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 77% +23DAL 54% → 77%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- VGK +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 2.9 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +6 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +80 Elo | DAL 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 12th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 6–3 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- May 3DAL 0 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 53%Hit
- May 1VGK 2 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 57%Hit
- Apr 29DAL 4 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 54%Miss
- Apr 27DAL 3 @ VGK 2PlayoffsPicked VGK 54%Miss
- Apr 24VGK 3 @ DAL 1PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- Apr 22VGK 4 @ DAL 3PlayoffsPicked DAL 56%Miss
- Dec 9VGK 6 @ DAL 1Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Nov 22VGK 2 @ DAL 1Picked DAL 55%Miss