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Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Stars

52-21-9

0–2

at

Home

Golden Knights

45-29-8

DAL 47%VGK 53%

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T-Mobile Arena · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.

VGK favored DAL favored2 scoring plays
P1P2P3VGK50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Stars
    Golden Knights

    Scoring summary

    • P319:41Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Alex Pietrangelo (1)0–2
    • P39:54Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1

    Turning points

    The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P39:54Noah Hanifin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: noneDAL 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 51% → 82% +31
    2. P319:41Mark Stone Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (1), Alex Pietrangelo (1)DAL 0 – 2 VGK · VGK >99% → 100% +0

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

    Golden Knights 53%

    Toss-upHit
    DAL 47%VGK 53%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    No line yet
    Pre-line forecast
    VGK 53%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    VGK 47%
    Fair odds
    VGK -114
    DAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    DAL 3.0 – 3.2 VGK
    Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorDALVGKWhy
    Team rating15581515Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+5−10DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsDAL +23 EloDAL 53.3%
    Market-implied ratingsVGK 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastVGK 53.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights compared, with each team's league rank
    DALStatVGK
    3rd of 313.6Goals scored3.310th of 31
    9th of 312.9Goals allowed3.012th of 31
    2nd of 31+0.7Margin+0.313th of 31
    8th of 3152.3%Shot share50.4%16th of 31
    15th of 3190.4%Save percentage90.8%10th of 31
    1st of 318–2Last 106–46th of 31
    1st of 3125–15Road vs home27–134th of 31

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    StarsGolden Knights
    1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Head to head

    DAL 3–5 VGK in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.