Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Joel KivirantaGoals1
- Josh MansonAssists1
- Valeri NichushkinPoints1
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals2
- Roope HintzAssists3
- Roope HintzPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:39Esa Lindell Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (3), Chris Tanev (1)3–5
- P316:16Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (4), Casey Mittelstadt (6)3–4
- P38:00Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (5)2–4
- P34:06Joel Kiviranta Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Josh Manson (4), Ross Colton (3)1–4
- P218:06Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (2)0–4
- P215:54Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (4), Roope Hintz (2)0–3
- P21:57Roope Hintz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Mason Marchment (1)0–2
- P114:46Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Jason Robertson (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:46Miro Heiskanen Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1), Jason Robertson (4)COL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 54% → 70% +16DAL 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P21:57Roope Hintz Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Lundkvist (1), Mason Marchment (1)COL 0 – 2 DAL · DAL 71% → 84% +13DAL 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P215:54Miro Heiskanen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (4), Roope Hintz (2)COL 0 – 3 DAL · DAL 89% → 96% +7DAL 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P38:00Brandon Duhaime Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Cogliano (5)COL 2 – 4 DAL · COL <1% → 5% +4COL <1% → 5%+4 pts
- P316:16Valeri Nichushkin Goal (9) Deflected, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (4), Casey Mittelstadt (6)COL 3 – 4 DAL · COL <1% → 7% +7COL <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Fair odds
- DAL -121
- COL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +29 Elo | DAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–1 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.