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Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast

FinalDAL leads series 3-2

Away

Avalanche

50-25-7

5–3

at

Home

Stars

52-21-9

COL 44%DAL 56%

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American Airlines Center · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.

DAL favored COL favored8 scoring plays
P1P2P3DAL50%COL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Avalanche
Stars

Scoring summary

  • P316:50Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Artturi Lehkonen (5), Josh Manson (5)5–3
  • P35:44Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (1)4–3
  • P34:28Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
  • P31:12Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Parise (1), Samuel Girard (3)3–2
  • P217:24Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2), Mikko Rantanen (10)2–2
  • P211:39Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (9), Joe Pavelski (2)1–2
  • P119:59Artturi Lehkonen Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (10)1–1
  • P19:03Joe Pavelski Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (4), Jason Robertson (8)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P211:39Miro Heiskanen Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (9), Joe Pavelski (2)COL 1 – 2 DAL · DAL 54% → 74% +20
  2. P217:24Cale Makar Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (2), Mikko Rantanen (10)COL 2 – 2 DAL · COL 25% → 46% +22
  3. P31:12Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Parise (1), Samuel Girard (3)COL 3 – 2 DAL · COL 47% → 72% +25
  4. P34:28Cale Makar Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 4 – 2 DAL · COL 74% → 91% +17
  5. P35:44Logan Stankoven Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Esa Lindell (1)COL 4 – 3 DAL · DAL 8% → 25% +17

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Stars 56%

LeanMiss
COL 44%DAL 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
DAL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
DAL 59%
Fair odds
DAL -126
COL +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
COL 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCOLDALWhy
Team rating15521567Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−6+6COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsDAL +62 EloDAL 58.8%
Market-implied ratingsDAL 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastDAL 55.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars compared, with each team's league rank
COLStatDAL
1st of 313.7Goals scored3.63rd of 31
17th of 313.1Goals allowed2.99th of 31
7th of 31+0.6Margin+0.72nd of 31
6th of 3152.6%Shot share52.3%8th of 31
18th of 3190.3%Save percentage90.4%15th of 31
20th of 314–6Last 108–21st of 31
14th of 3119–20Road vs home24–159th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

AvalancheStars
1500155016001650NovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

COL 4–4 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.