Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals2
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints3
Avalanche- Casey MittelstadtGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Casey MittelstadtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:10Sam Steel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (4), Tyler Seguin (4)5–1
- P39:27Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Miro Heiskanen (8)4–1
- P212:35Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (1)3–1
- P211:24Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (3), Jason Robertson (7)3–0
- P25:46Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (6), Miro Heiskanen (7)2–0
- P115:37Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:37Wyatt Johnston Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (3)DAL 1 – 0 COL · DAL 46% → 63% +17DAL 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P25:46Wyatt Johnston Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (6), Miro Heiskanen (7)DAL 2 – 0 COL · DAL 65% → 81% +16DAL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P211:24Miro Heiskanen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stankoven (3), Jason Robertson (7)DAL 3 – 0 COL · DAL 84% → 93% +10DAL 84% → 93%+10 pts
- P212:35Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (1)DAL 3 – 1 COL · COL 6% → 16% +10COL 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P39:27Evgenii Dadonov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Marchment (2), Miro Heiskanen (8)DAL 4 – 1 COL · DAL 95% → >99% +4DAL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 53%
- Fair odds
- COL -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −5 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +22 Elo | COL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.71st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 52.6%6th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 29–101st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 3–4 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.