Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Kent JohnsonAssists1
- Kent JohnsonPoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:06Zach Werenski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (1), Kent Johnson (1)2–3
- P39:58Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Kirill Kaprizov (1)1–3
- P216:35Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Matt Boldy (1)1–2
- P22:00Kent Johnson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (1), Damon Severson (1)1–1
- P117:51Matt Boldy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (1), Jonas Brodin (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:51Matt Boldy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (1), Jonas Brodin (1)CBJ 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 67% → 81% +14MIN 67% → 81%+14 pts
- P22:00Kent Johnson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (1), Damon Severson (1)CBJ 1 – 1 MIN · CBJ 19% → 33% +15CBJ 19% → 33%+15 pts
- P216:35Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Matt Boldy (1)CBJ 1 – 2 MIN · MIN 63% → 82% +19MIN 63% → 82%+19 pts
- P39:58Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (2), Kirill Kaprizov (1)CBJ 1 – 3 MIN · MIN 87% → 98% +11MIN 87% → 98%+11 pts
- P317:06Zach Werenski Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Yegor Chinakhov (1), Kent Johnson (1)CBJ 2 – 3 MIN · CBJ <1% → 4% +4CBJ <1% → 4%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 70%
- ML CBJ +225 / MIN -275
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.3%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -238
- CBJ +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +80 Elo | MIN 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.5% | Shot share | 50.1%18th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 29th of 3110–30 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.