Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Marco RossiAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints2
Kings- Blake LizotteGoals1
- Kevin FialaAssists1
- Blake LizottePoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:36Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (44), Cam Talbot (3)3–1
- P38:25Kirill Kaprizov Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (19), Jake Middleton (17)3–0
- P219:55Ryan Hartman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (50), Joel Eriksson Ek (34)2–0
- P114:14Matt Boldy Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (18), Brock Faber (39)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:14Matt Boldy Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (18), Brock Faber (39)MIN 1 – 0 LA · MIN 45% → 61% +16MIN 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P219:55Ryan Hartman Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (50), Joel Eriksson Ek (34)MIN 2 – 0 LA · MIN 71% → 88% +17MIN 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P38:25Kirill Kaprizov Goal (45) Wrist Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (19), Jake Middleton (17)MIN 3 – 0 LA · MIN 94% → >99% +5MIN 94% → >99%+5 pts
- P314:36Blake Lizotte Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Fiala (44), Cam Talbot (3)MIN 3 – 1 LA · LA <1% → <1% +1LA <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 59%
- Fair odds
- LA -126
- MIN +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +60 Elo | LA 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.1% | Shot share | 53.1%5th of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%5th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 21st of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–2 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.