Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Yanni GourdeGoals2
- Brandon TanevAssists2
- Yanni GourdePoints2
Wild- Mats ZuccarelloGoals1
- Matt BoldyAssists2
- Matt BoldyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:55Brock Faber Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (40), Ryan Hartman (24)4–3
- P318:14Yanni Gourde Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (9), Jamie Oleksiak (13)4–2
- P317:20Tye Kartye Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (39), Jared McCann (33)3–2
- P311:13Mats Zuccarello Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (39), Jake Middleton (18)2–2
- P36:38Yanni Gourde Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (8)2–1
- P211:00Matty Beniers Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Justin Schultz (19), Oliver Bjorkstrand (38)1–1
- P14:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:04Kirill Kaprizov Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSEA 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 55% → 70% +14MIN 55% → 70%+14 pts
- P211:00Matty Beniers Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Justin Schultz (19), Oliver Bjorkstrand (38)SEA 1 – 1 MIN · SEA 27% → 46% +19SEA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P36:38Yanni Gourde Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (8)SEA 2 – 1 MIN · SEA 47% → 76% +29SEA 47% → 76%+29 pts
- P311:13Mats Zuccarello Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (39), Jake Middleton (18)SEA 2 – 2 MIN · MIN 18% → 52% +34MIN 18% → 52%+34 pts
- P317:20Tye Kartye Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (39), Jared McCann (33)SEA 3 – 2 MIN · SEA 49% → 96% +47SEA 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 58%
- Fair odds
- MIN -125
- SEA +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.9 – 3.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −9 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +54 Elo | MIN 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.1%18th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3116–22 | Road vs home | 19–1818th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.