Carolina Hurricanes at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals2
- Stefan NoesenAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints2
Blue Jackets- Zach WerenskiGoals2
- Zach WerenskiAssists2
- Zach WerenskiPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:21Zach Werenski Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (7), Erik Gudbranson (20)3–6
- P30:47Alex Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (19), Ivan Provorov (27)3–5
- P212:18Johnny Gaudreau Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Justin Danforth (16), Zach Werenski (46)3–4
- P210:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (33), Stefan Noesen (23)3–3
- P119:01James Malatesta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (6), Sean Kuraly (9)2–3
- P118:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (15), Brent Burns (32)2–2
- P17:10Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Comtois (1), Stefan Noesen (22)1–2
- P15:24Zach Werenski Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (19), Kirill Marchenko (19)0–2
- P13:37Luca Del Bel Belluz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (2), Zach Werenski (45)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (15), Brent Burns (32)CAR 2 – 2 CBJ · CAR 32% → 49% +17CAR 32% → 49%+17 pts
- P119:01James Malatesta Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Olivier (6), Sean Kuraly (9)CAR 2 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 68% +17CBJ 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P210:16Teuvo Teravainen Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Brent Burns (33), Stefan Noesen (23)CAR 3 – 3 CBJ · CAR 29% → 49% +20CAR 29% → 49%+20 pts
- P212:18Johnny Gaudreau Goal (12) Wrap-around, assists: Justin Danforth (16), Zach Werenski (46)CAR 3 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 51% → 71% +20CBJ 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P30:47Alex Nylander Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Gudbranson (19), Ivan Provorov (27)CAR 3 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 75% → 91% +16CBJ 75% → 91%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 39%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -107
- CAR +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −24 | −10 | CAR: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.60 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · CBJ: Jet Greaves: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +80 Elo | CAR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 51.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.629th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.828th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.4% | Shot share | 46.6%26th of 31 |
| 13th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3124–15 | Road vs home | 16–2325th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 3–0 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.