Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Samuel GirardAssists2
- Samuel GirardPoints2
Golden Knights- Ivan BarbashevGoals2
- Ivan BarbashevAssists2
- Ivan BarbashevPoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:24Brett Howden Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Pearson (1), Mark Stone (1)4–8
- P313:54Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brayden McNabb (1)4–7
- P38:29Mark Stone Goal (2) Deflected, assists: Jack Eichel (4), Shea Theodore (3)4–6
- P36:59Mikko Rantanen Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (2), Samuel Girard (2)4–5
- P219:46Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (2), Tomas Hertl (1)3–5
- P217:32Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Josh Manson (1)3–4
- P25:49Zach Whitecloud Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (2), Jack Eichel (3)2–4
- P24:15Mikko Rantanen Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (1), Nathan MacKinnon (2)2–3
- P118:57Mark Stone Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (2), Ivan Barbashev (1)1–3
- P118:32Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Jack Eichel (1)1–2
- P111:15Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Shea Theodore (1)1–1
- P110:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Devon Toews (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:48Mikko Rantanen Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (1), Devon Toews (1)COL 1 – 0 VGK · COL 49% → 65% +16COL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P111:15Victor Olofsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Pietrangelo (1), Shea Theodore (1)COL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 35% → 51% +16VGK 35% → 51%+16 pts
- P118:32Ivan Barbashev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (1), Jack Eichel (1)COL 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 51% → 68% +17VGK 51% → 68%+17 pts
- P217:32Casey Mittelstadt Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Samuel Girard (1), Josh Manson (1)COL 3 – 4 VGK · COL 11% → 27% +16COL 11% → 27%+16 pts
- P219:46Victor Olofsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (2), Tomas Hertl (1)COL 3 – 5 VGK · VGK 74% → 90% +16VGK 74% → 90%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 51%
- ML COL -105 / VGK -115
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.2 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −3 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +7 Elo | VGK 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 6th of 3152.6% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 14th of 3119–20 | Road vs home | 27–134th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 1–2 VGK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.