Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jordan EberleGoals2
- Andre BurakovskyAssists2
- Jordan EberlePoints2
Wild- Kirill KaprizovGoals1
- Kirill KaprizovAssists2
- Kirill KaprizovPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jordan Eberle Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal Snap Shot2–1
- SO0:00Mats Zuccarello Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- P316:34Jared McCann Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2), Andre Burakovsky (2)4–4
- P312:33Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Jared Spurgeon (1)3–4
- P32:47Tye Kartye Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (1), Yanni Gourde (1)3–3
- P31:41Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (2), Brock Faber (1)2–3
- P28:15Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (1), Vince Dunn (1)2–2
- P21:46Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jared McCann (1), Brandon Montour (1)1–2
- P21:06Matt Boldy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (3), Mats Zuccarello (1)0–2
- P19:22Mats Zuccarello Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Kaprizov (2), Marco Rossi (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:15Jordan Eberle Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (1), Vince Dunn (1)SEA 2 – 2 MIN · SEA 27% → 46% +19SEA 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P31:41Kirill Kaprizov Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Marco Rossi (2), Brock Faber (1)SEA 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 53% → 77% +24MIN 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P32:47Tye Kartye Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (1), Yanni Gourde (1)SEA 3 – 3 MIN · SEA 23% → 47% +25SEA 23% → 47%+25 pts
- P312:33Ryan Hartman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (3), Jared Spurgeon (1)SEA 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 52% → 86% +34MIN 52% → 86%+34 pts
- P316:34Jared McCann Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ryker Evans (2), Andre Burakovsky (2)SEA 4 – 4 MIN · SEA 6% → 49% +43SEA 6% → 49%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML SEA +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.6 – 2.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −10 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 11th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.220th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.5% | Shot share | 50.1%18th of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 89.7%24th of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 19–1920th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.