St. Louis Blues at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals2
- Justin FaulkAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints2
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Ryker EvansAssists1
- Vince DunnPoints1
Scoring summary
- P215:37Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (1)3–2
- P215:17Philip Broberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Dylan Holloway (1)2–2
- P213:42Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Justin Faulk (1)1–2
- P22:20Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (1), Will Borgen (1)0–2
- P20:27Vince Dunn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:27Vince Dunn Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Eberle (1)STL 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 57% → 74% +16SEA 57% → 74%+16 pts
- P22:20Eeli Tolvanen Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Ryker Evans (1), Will Borgen (1)STL 0 – 2 SEA · SEA 74% → 86% +13SEA 74% → 86%+13 pts
- P213:42Jordan Kyrou Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Robert Thomas (1), Justin Faulk (1)STL 1 – 2 SEA · STL 11% → 24% +14STL 11% → 24%+14 pts
- P215:17Philip Broberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (2), Dylan Holloway (1)STL 2 – 2 SEA · STL 24% → 44% +20STL 24% → 44%+20 pts
- P215:37Jordan Kyrou Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Texier (1)STL 3 – 2 SEA · STL 44% → 67% +22STL 44% → 67%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kraken 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML STL +135 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.1%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -143
- STL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −7 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.911th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 49.5%20th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 20th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 15–2427th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
STL 3–0 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.