Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Ryan McLeodPoints1
Blue Jackets- Mathieu OlivierGoals1
- Jake ChristiansenAssists2
- Mathieu OlivierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:51JJ Peterka Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (1), Rasmus Dahlin (2)4–6
- P38:10Damon Severson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (4)3–6
- P30:15Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (3), Mathieu Olivier (1)3–5
- P219:35Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P217:58Mathieu Olivier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (2), Jake Christiansen (2)2–4
- P217:29Jiri Kulich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Henri Jokiharju (2)2–3
- P212:18Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Ivan Provorov (1)1–3
- P29:34Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (4), Jordan Greenway (2)1–2
- P119:28Kirill Marchenko Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: none0–2
- P15:12Yegor Chinakhov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (1), Kent Johnson (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P212:18Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Ivan Provorov (1)BUF 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 67% → 83% +17CBJ 67% → 83%+17 pts
- P217:29Jiri Kulich Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Henri Jokiharju (2)BUF 2 – 3 CBJ · BUF 14% → 31% +17BUF 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P217:58Mathieu Olivier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (2), Jake Christiansen (2)BUF 2 – 4 CBJ · CBJ 69% → 87% +17CBJ 69% → 87%+17 pts
- P219:35Owen Power Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 4 CBJ · BUF 12% → 30% +17BUF 12% → 30%+17 pts
- P30:15Zachary Aston-Reese Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jake Christiansen (3), Mathieu Olivier (1)BUF 3 – 5 CBJ · CBJ 71% → 88% +17CBJ 71% → 88%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 56%
- ML BUF -140 / CBJ +120
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.4 pts
- BUF: Elo 42.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- BUF -128
- CBJ +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −16 | +1 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.40 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +50 Elo | CBJ 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.79th of 32 |
| 20th of 323.6 | Goals allowed | 3.723rd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−1.0 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 18th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 54.7%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 3289.3% | Save percentage | 85.9%28th of 32 |
| 21st of 290–1 | Road vs home | 0–122nd of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 CBJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.