Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Jordan GreenwayAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P314:14Timo Meier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1), Jack Hughes (2)1–3
- P37:18Paul Cotter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (1)1–2
- P211:59Seamus Casey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Stefan Noesen (1)1–1
- P28:18Tage Thompson Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Alex Tuch (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:18Tage Thompson Goal (1) Poke, assists: Jordan Greenway (1), Alex Tuch (1)BUF 1 – 0 NJ · BUF 45% → 65% +20BUF 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P211:59Seamus Casey Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Haula (1), Stefan Noesen (1)BUF 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 33% → 54% +21NJ 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P37:18Paul Cotter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (1)BUF 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 53% → 81% +28NJ 53% → 81%+28 pts
- P314:14Timo Meier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (1), Jack Hughes (2)BUF 1 – 3 NJ · NJ 89% → >99% +10NJ 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 56%
- ML BUF +120 / NJ -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- NJ: Elo 51.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NJ -128
- BUF +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.1 – 3.4 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −21 | −5 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.54 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +9 Elo | NJ 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.5%27th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–3 NJ in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.