Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Dylan CozensGoals2
- Jack QuinnAssists2
- Dylan CozensPoints3
Lightning- Erik CernakGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P39:54Zach Benson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (10), Dylan Cozens (29)4–2
- P39:39Erik Cernak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (21)3–2
- P216:13Jordan Greenway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (6), Tyson Jost (3)3–1
- P25:08Dylan Cozens Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (18)2–1
- P22:27Steven Stamkos Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (99)1–1
- P11:26Dylan Cozens Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (9), Bowen Byram (18)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:27Steven Stamkos Goal (40) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (99)BUF 1 – 1 TB · TB 38% → 56% +18TB 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P25:08Dylan Cozens Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (18)BUF 2 – 1 TB · BUF 44% → 63% +19BUF 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P216:13Jordan Greenway Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Zemgus Girgensons (6), Tyson Jost (3)BUF 3 – 1 TB · BUF 68% → 85% +17BUF 68% → 85%+17 pts
- P39:39Erik Cernak Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (21)BUF 3 – 2 TB · TB 5% → 21% +16TB 5% → 21%+16 pts
- P39:54Zach Benson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jack Quinn (10), Dylan Cozens (29)BUF 4 – 2 TB · BUF 79% → 96% +16BUF 79% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Fair odds
- TB -134
- BUF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −41 | +4 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 1.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +114 Elo | TB 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 16th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 18th of 3117–22 | Road vs home | 23–1510th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.