Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Anthony DuclairGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists1
- Anthony DuclairPoints1
Capitals- Sonny MilanoGoals2
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Sonny MilanoPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:46Nic Dowd Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (15), Trevor van Riemsdyk (14)2–4
- P38:29John Carlson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (39), Tom Wilson (16)2–3
- P116:24Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (39), Anthony Cirelli (25)2–2
- P114:00Sonny Milano Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P113:06Anthony Duclair Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (44), Darren Raddysh (26)1–1
- P19:56Sonny Milano Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Max Pacioretty (19), Hendrix Lapierre (14)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:56Sonny Milano Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Max Pacioretty (19), Hendrix Lapierre (14)TB 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 68% +15WSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P113:06Anthony Duclair Goal (23) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (44), Darren Raddysh (26)TB 1 – 1 WSH · TB 31% → 47% +16TB 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P114:00Sonny Milano Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 53% → 69% +16WSH 53% → 69%+16 pts
- P116:24Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Steven Stamkos (39), Anthony Cirelli (25)TB 2 – 2 WSH · TB 31% → 47% +16TB 31% → 47%+16 pts
- P38:29John Carlson Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (39), Tom Wilson (16)TB 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 51% → 81% +29WSH 51% → 81%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 46%
- Fair odds
- WSH -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | 0 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +26 Elo | TB 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.426th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.4% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%18th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 12th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 20–1817th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.