Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists2
- John CarlsonPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists2
- Jordan GreenwayPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:00Tom Wilson Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: John Carlson (42), Alex Ovechkin (34)2–4
- P317:43Dylan Cozens Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (17), Henri Jokiharju (16)1–4
- P39:46Jack Quinn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (14), Jordan Greenway (16)1–3
- P214:36Connor McMichael Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (18), John Carlson (41)1–2
- P212:37Alex Tuch Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (15), Tage Thompson (27)0–2
- P119:00Zach Benson Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (22), Peyton Krebs (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:00Zach Benson Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (22), Peyton Krebs (13)WSH 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 54% → 71% +17BUF 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P212:37Alex Tuch Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (15), Tage Thompson (27)WSH 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 74% → 88% +14BUF 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P214:36Connor McMichael Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Max Pacioretty (18), John Carlson (41)WSH 1 – 2 BUF · WSH 11% → 26% +14WSH 11% → 26%+14 pts
- P39:46Jack Quinn Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (14), Jordan Greenway (16)WSH 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 83% → 97% +14BUF 83% → 97%+14 pts
- P317:43Dylan Cozens Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Greenway (17), Henri Jokiharju (16)WSH 1 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +2 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +49 Elo | BUF 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.2% | Shot share | 51.4%11th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%19th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 16th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 19–2020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.