Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- T.J. OshieAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Red Wings- Patrick KaneGoals1
- David PerronAssists1
- Patrick KanePoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:58Patrick Kane Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (27), Lucas Raymond (38)2–1
- P219:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (12)2–0
- P217:47Dylan Strome Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (13)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:47Dylan Strome Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (13)WSH 1 – 0 DET · WSH 46% → 70% +23WSH 46% → 70%+23 pts
- P219:52Alex Ovechkin Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (12)WSH 2 – 0 DET · WSH 71% → 88% +17WSH 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P319:58Patrick Kane Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (27), Lucas Raymond (38)WSH 2 – 1 DET · DET 0% → 0% +0DET 0% → 0%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 59%
- Fair odds
- DET -126
- WSH +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +63 Elo | DET 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.322nd of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.4% | Shot share | 46.5%26th of 31 |
| 20th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 21st of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 22–1512th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.