Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Brady TkachukAssists1
- Brady TkachukPoints2
Lightning- Conor ShearyGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Conor ShearyPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brady Tkachuk Goal Backhand1–0
- P32:11Drake Batherson Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (35), Thomas Chabot (21)2–2
- P112:56Brayden Point Goal (45) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (98), Conor Sheary (11)1–2
- P19:45Conor Sheary Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (97), Brayden Point (43)1–1
- P18:45Brady Tkachuk Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (27)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:45Brady Tkachuk Goal (35) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakob Chychrun (27)OTT 1 – 0 TB · OTT 44% → 60% +16OTT 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P19:45Conor Sheary Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (97), Brayden Point (43)OTT 1 – 1 TB · TB 40% → 56% +16TB 40% → 56%+16 pts
- P112:56Brayden Point Goal (45) Backhand, assists: Nikita Kucherov (98), Conor Sheary (11)OTT 1 – 2 TB · TB 56% → 71% +15TB 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P32:11Drake Batherson Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Brady Tkachuk (35), Thomas Chabot (21)OTT 2 – 2 TB · OTT 22% → 47% +24OTT 22% → 47%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- OTT +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −10 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · TB: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +81 Elo | TB 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.0% | Shot share | 49.4%20th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 89.7%26th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 26th of 3114–23 | Road vs home | 23–147th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.