Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tyson JostGoals1
- Henri JokiharjuAssists1
- Tyson JostPoints1
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Sam ReinhartPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT3:58Sam Reinhart Goal (55) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (55)2–3
- P19:48Jack Quinn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (17), Owen Power (27)2–2
- P18:11Kevin Stenlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P15:02Anton Lundell Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (60), Nick Cousins (8)1–1
- P12:59Tyson Jost Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (39), Henri Jokiharju (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:59Tyson Jost Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (39), Henri Jokiharju (17)BUF 1 – 0 FLA · BUF 44% → 59% +15BUF 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P15:02Anton Lundell Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (60), Nick Cousins (8)BUF 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 41% → 56% +15FLA 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P18:11Kevin Stenlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 56% → 71% +15FLA 56% → 71%+15 pts
- P19:48Jack Quinn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Bowen Byram (17), Owen Power (27)BUF 2 – 2 FLA · BUF 29% → 44% +15BUF 29% → 44%+15 pts
- OT3:58Sam Reinhart Goal (55) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (55)BUF 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 51% → >99% +49FLA 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 62%
- Fair odds
- FLA -130
- BUF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +85 Elo | FLA 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 17th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 15th of 3117–21 | Road vs home | 23–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–2 FLA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.