New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Nick SeelerAssists1
- Travis KonecnyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P210:50Travis Konecny Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (26), Nick Seeler (12)0–1
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:50Travis Konecny Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (26), Nick Seeler (12)NJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 53% → 73% +20PHI 53% → 73%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NJ +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −10 | NJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +13 Elo | PHI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.320th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.5% | Shot share | 54.9%2nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 20th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 10th of 3121–18 | Road vs home | 18–2023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.