Philadelphia Flyers at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals1
- Ryan PoehlingAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Mika ZibanejadAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:56Noah Cates Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (26), Travis Sanheim (34)4–1
- P219:13Travis Konecny Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (17)3–1
- P23:29Bobby Brink Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (16)2–1
- P118:19Artemi Panarin Goal (47) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (55), Mika Zibanejad (44)1–1
- P14:21Cam York Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:21Cam York Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (35)PHI 1 – 0 NYR · PHI 42% → 57% +15PHI 42% → 57%+15 pts
- P118:19Artemi Panarin Goal (47) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fox (55), Mika Zibanejad (44)PHI 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 40% → 57% +17NYR 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P23:29Bobby Brink Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Ryan Poehling (16)PHI 2 – 1 NYR · PHI 44% → 62% +18PHI 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P219:13Travis Konecny Goal (32) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (17)PHI 3 – 1 NYR · PHI 69% → 87% +18PHI 69% → 87%+18 pts
- P35:56Noah Cates Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (26), Travis Sanheim (34)PHI 4 – 1 NYR · PHI 92% → 98% +6PHI 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 70%
- Fair odds
- NYR -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.8 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +7 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.36 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +150 Elo | NYR 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 50.6%15th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3116–22 | Road vs home | 27–102nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–3 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.