Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Rangers- Mika ZibanejadGoals2
- Artemi PanarinAssists3
- Artemi PanarinPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:45Alexis Lafrenière Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Artemi Panarin (69), K'Andre Miller (22)2–5
- P316:56Mika Zibanejad Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (13)2–4
- P312:13Alex Newhook Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (47)2–3
- P36:09Artemi Panarin Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (29), Braden Schneider (14)1–3
- P33:59Chris Kreider Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (68), Mika Zibanejad (42)1–2
- P212:31Mika Zibanejad Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (67), Adam Fox (54)1–1
- P119:30Cole Caufield Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Savard (13), Mike Matheson (46)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:30Cole Caufield Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Savard (13), Mike Matheson (46)MTL 1 – 0 NYR · MTL 40% → 58% +18MTL 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P212:31Mika Zibanejad Goal (25) Deflected, assists: Artemi Panarin (67), Adam Fox (54)MTL 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 37% → 58% +21NYR 37% → 58%+21 pts
- P33:59Chris Kreider Goal (38) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (68), Mika Zibanejad (42)MTL 1 – 2 NYR · NYR 56% → 81% +24NYR 56% → 81%+24 pts
- P36:09Artemi Panarin Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (29), Braden Schneider (14)MTL 1 – 3 NYR · NYR 82% → 95% +13NYR 82% → 95%+13 pts
- P312:13Alex Newhook Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (47)MTL 2 – 3 NYR · MTL 2% → 13% +11MTL 2% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 72%
- Fair odds
- NYR -163
- MTL +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.7 – 3.4 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −4 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +167 Elo | NYR 72.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 28th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 50.4%16th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 26th of 3114–22 | Road vs home | 26–102nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.