Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Max DomiGoals1
- Tyler BertuzziAssists1
- Max DomiPoints1
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P218:32Cole Caufield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (45), Nick Suzuki (41)4–2
- P29:05Nick Suzuki Goal (33) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (29), Mike Matheson (44)4–1
- P27:54Bobby McMann Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (52)4–0
- P27:20Matthew Knies Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (56), TJ Brodie (23)3–0
- P22:38Auston Matthews Goal (64) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (20)2–0
- P22:21Max Domi Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (8), Morgan Rielly (46)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:21Max Domi Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (8), Morgan Rielly (46)TOR 1 – 0 MTL · TOR 48% → 66% +18TOR 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P22:38Auston Matthews Goal (64) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (20)TOR 2 – 0 MTL · TOR 66% → 81% +15TOR 66% → 81%+15 pts
- P27:20Matthew Knies Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: William Nylander (56), TJ Brodie (23)TOR 3 – 0 MTL · TOR 83% → 92% +10TOR 83% → 92%+10 pts
- P27:54Bobby McMann Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (52)TOR 4 – 0 MTL · TOR 93% → 97% +5TOR 93% → 97%+5 pts
- P218:32Cole Caufield Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (45), Nick Suzuki (41)TOR 4 – 2 MTL · MTL 4% → 12% +8MTL 4% → 12%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 43%
- Fair odds
- MTL -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +48 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 46.0%28th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%20th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 8th of 3119–15 | Road vs home | 14–2329th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.