Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Erik JohnsonGoals1
- Owen TippettAssists2
- Erik JohnsonPoints2
Canadiens- Juraj SlafkovskyGoals3
- Jordan HarrisAssists3
- Juraj SlafkovskyPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:17Joel Armia Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (13), Alex Newhook (18)3–9
- P317:07Erik Johnson Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (25), Garnet Hathaway (10)3–8
- P315:05Joel Farabee Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Olle Lycksell (4), Noah Cates (12)2–8
- P311:19Brendan Gallagher Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Joel Armia (7), Johnathan Kovacevic (5)1–8
- P310:06Christian Dvorak Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard (8)1–7
- P34:54Ryan Poehling Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (24), Erik Johnson (1)1–6
- P215:27Christian Dvorak Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (11)0–6
- P212:42Josh Anderson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jordan Harris (10), Tanner Pearson (8)0–5
- P211:22Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: David Savard (14)0–4
- P210:46Brendan Gallagher Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (4), Jordan Harris (9)0–3
- P28:43Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Mike Matheson (49)0–2
- P11:05Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (48), Cole Caufield (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:05Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Mike Matheson (48), Cole Caufield (36)PHI 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 55% → 69% +14MTL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P28:43Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (42), Mike Matheson (49)PHI 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 72% → 86% +14MTL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P210:46Brendan Gallagher Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (4), Jordan Harris (9)PHI 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 87% → 95% +8MTL 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P211:22Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: David Savard (14)PHI 0 – 4 MTL · MTL 95% → 99% +3MTL 95% → 99%+3 pts
- P212:42Josh Anderson Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Jordan Harris (10), Tanner Pearson (8)PHI 0 – 5 MTL · MTL 99% → >99% +1MTL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 53%
- Fair odds
- MTL -121
- PHI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | 0 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +24 Elo | MTL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.528th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.0% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 30th of 3188.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%21st of 31 |
| 28th of 312–8 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 21st of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 14–2429th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.